🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."